ASSESSMENT OF CARRYING CAPACITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CAPACITY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE

Abstract

Assessing carrying capacity and environmental capacity is essential for sustainable development, especially in regions with rapid population growth and economic expansion. East Java faces increasing pressure on biophysical resources, particularly water, requiring evaluation of the balance between environmental provision and human demand. This study assesses water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) using grid-based spatial analysis and the Simple Additive Weighting method to map water availability and demand. Carrying capacity status is determined by comparing both to identify surplus and deficit conditions. However, only 30.2% of studies include water quality parameters, even though pollutant loading is a key constraint. Research in China dominates, accounting for 95.2%, while tropical regions remain underrepresented. China (95.2%), leaving tropical regions underrepresented. The main gap is the lack of integrated WRCC models that combine machine learning with uncertainty analysis. Results show spatial disparities: some areas remain sustainable, while others exceed critical thresholds. Integrating these findings into governance is crucial to prevent resource depletion.