LAND USE SIMULATION TO FOSTER ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OF THE RANU PANE VOLCANIC LAKE, INDONESIA

Authors

  • Syamsul Bachri Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MALANG, INDONESIA
  • Rajendra P Shrestha Department of Development and Sustainability, ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, THAILAND
  • A. Riyan Rahman Hakiki Department of Geography Education, UNIVERSITAS LAMBUNG MANGKURAT, INDONESIA
  • Mellinia Regina Heni Prastiwi Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MALANG, INDONESIA
  • Nanda Regita Cahyaning Putri Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MALANG, INDONESIA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v24i40.1958

Keywords:

Land Change Modeler, Land Use Change, Ranu Pane Volcanic Lake, Semeru Volcano

Abstract

Sedimentation in the Ranu Pane Volcanic Lake (RPVL) has increased due to land use change (LUC) in the surrounding area and the considerable outflow of materials from the Semeru volcanic eruption. The continued sedimentation will have negative consequences for humans and the sustainability of the RPVL. This research was aimed at building a LUC simulation model for 2024-2036 using a land change modeler (LCM) with the Logistic Regression/Markov Chain algorithm and a built-up land scenario based on historical land use (LU) data to investigate future sedimentation. The secondary data were mosaics from Planet Labs® Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) imagery, roads, rivers, slopes, elevation, rainfall, and soil types. The primary data collected through fieldwork for validation of the LU were processed using remote sensing and the Geographic Information System (GIS). The simulation model for 2024-2036 was built using the LU data for 2016, 2020, and 2024. The LCM model detected that there would be a decrease in forest area but an increase in built-up land and agriculture in the study area between 2024–2036. The findings indicate that the increased land area and agriculture around Mount Semeru will lead to further sedimentation. The study findings can help planners understand LU patterns and their impacts, which can be useful in designing sustainable lake development strategies and management plans for the area.

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References

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Published

2026-02-12

How to Cite

Bachri, S., Shrestha, R. P., Rahman Hakiki, A. R., Heni Prastiwi, M. R., & Cahyaning Putri, N. R. (2026). LAND USE SIMULATION TO FOSTER ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OF THE RANU PANE VOLCANIC LAKE, INDONESIA. PLANNING MALAYSIA, 24(40). https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v24i40.1958

Issue

Vol. 24 (2026): PLANNING MALAYSIA JOURNAL : Volume 24, Issue 1, 2026

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